Each day a multitude of predictions and forecasts are produced to inform or shape opinion in politics, economy, technology, sports, entertainment...
What are they saying? Should we listen?
Prediction Record is a collaborative effort to navigate this world of predictions.
Gathering
What is predicted to happen in a given topic in following year(s)?
Prediction Record documents predictions from articles or other media and systemises these by adding relevant attributes to each prediction (e.g. topic or region).
This is an open source portal - all are welcome to add predictions found on the web ("Contribute" below).
Evaluating
Which predictions were spot on, which failed? Who is most often right on any given topic?
Prediction Record matches predictions with actual results as these are recorded, calculating an accuracy rating per predictor, topic and other variables.
We include predictions that are:
- specific and concrete - i.e. no ambiguity and no "outs" baked into the prediction text, no dependencies ("if this happens, then that might happen");
- made by specific predictor(s);
- timebound - when (day, month or year) does the predicted event start and end;
- linked to the source URL.
Know an expert prediction that should be listed on this site?