“I am sure that we are going to be in a kinetic conflict with China in five years,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Wednesday. “I hope I'm wrong, but I believe within the next five years there's going to be a kinetic conflict — missiles, submarines, aircraft; not so much land operations. … It’s just about inevitable.” /.../ “I just think the language coming out of Beijing about Taiwan, the fact that nobody did anything, truthfully, about what the Chinese have done in Hong Kong, to include the U.K. surprisingly, how little the response has been, and then the increasing aggression, aggressiveness, by the Chinese in the South China Sea — it seems to me it’s just about inevitable,” Hodges said. “I don’t want to say inevitable, but it’s very close to it.”

Jan - Jul


Surprise, surprise, as the utterly and starkly predictable continues to unfold. My prediction: battlefield tactical nuclear exchange within six months.

Jun - Sep


War is test of wills and logistics. I assess Russian forces will collapse by end of summer and UAF will go over to the offense, exploiting that collapse and drive back RF forces to 23 Feb line or more by September.

Notes on the prediction's verdict (wrong):

As things stand at end of September 2022, UAF has gone over to counter-offensive, but still far from 23 Feb line.

Apr - Jun


And before the Kremlin crowd gets too excited, here is an Ukrainian Stugna-P, saying good night to 4 Russian main battle tanks (more than 20 crew) in under 4 minutes - uncut. Russian advances right now are the last we are seeing in this war. They will end in May or June latest.

Notes on the prediction's verdict (wrong):

Julian Röpcke: "Six weeks later, it is time to admit, I was too optimistic. The Russian army is still advancing or holding a stabilizing front and Putin managed to mobilize (second- & third-class) surrogate for the lost men and material. I still believe, we approach a turning point. Just later." (https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1541695571668467713, 28.06.2022)

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