Italy

Italy should be one of the heaviest favorites in the round of 16. The Azzurri had the most impressive defense in the group stage. They had the lowest expected goals against of the 24 Euro 2020 participants at 1.0. Roberto Mancini's squad produced three clean sheets and were rewarded with an easier matchup versus Austria compared to some of the other European powers. Austria feasted on the two weaker sides in Group D by earning a 3-1 win over North Macedonia and a 1-0 victory over Ukraine. But the Austrians struggled to deal with the Netherlands in their second group game, a 2-0 loss in which they lost the expected goals battle 3.3 to 0.4. In that matchup, Austria was without Marko Arnautovic, who was serving a one-game suspension for insulting a North Macedonian player. But his presence may not make too much of a difference against an Italian defense that commanded each of the three group matches. Italy has not conceded in any of its eight games in 2021. The last goal it allowed came on Oct. 14 in a UEFA Nations League match against the Dutch. Prediction: Italy