Russia
Oct
2022
-
Aug
2023
Russia's logistics system is exhausted and no Russian wants to fight in Putin's war in Ukraine. Ukraine has irreversible momentum and will liberate Crimea by next Summer. Western Will to support Ukraine is unbroken. It's the last Winter where Russia will disrupt Europe's economy.
Jan - Jul
2023
Surprise, surprise, as the utterly and starkly predictable continues to unfold. My prediction: battlefield tactical nuclear exchange within six months.
Jun - Sep
2022
War is test of wills and logistics. I assess Russian forces will collapse by end of summer and UAF will go over to the offense, exploiting that collapse and drive back RF forces to 23 Feb line or more by September.
Apr - Jun
2022
And before the Kremlin crowd gets too excited, here is an Ukrainian Stugna-P, saying good night to 4 Russian main battle tanks (more than 20 crew) in under 4 minutes - uncut.
Russian advances right now are the last we are seeing in this war. They will end in May or June latest.
Notes on the prediction's verdict (wrong):
Julian Röpcke: "Six weeks later, it is time to admit, I was too optimistic. The Russian army is still advancing or holding a stabilizing front and Putin managed to mobilize (second- & third-class) surrogate for the lost men and material. I still believe, we approach a turning point. Just later." (https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1541695571668467713, 28.06.2022)
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Notes on the prediction's verdict (wrong):
As things stand at end of September 2022, UAF has gone over to counter-offensive, but still far from 23 Feb line.