“I am sure that we are going to be in a kinetic conflict with China in five years,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Wednesday. “I hope I'm wrong, but I believe within the next five years there's going to be a kinetic conflict — missiles, submarines, aircraft; not so much land operations. … It’s just about inevitable.” /.../ “I just think the language coming out of Beijing about Taiwan, the fact that nobody did anything, truthfully, about what the Chinese have done in Hong Kong, to include the U.K. surprisingly, how little the response has been, and then the increasing aggression, aggressiveness, by the Chinese in the South China Sea — it seems to me it’s just about inevitable,” Hodges said. “I don’t want to say inevitable, but it’s very close to it.”

Russia's logistics system is exhausted and no Russian wants to fight in Putin's war in Ukraine. Ukraine has irreversible momentum and will liberate Crimea by next Summer. Western Will to support Ukraine is unbroken. It's the last Winter where Russia will disrupt Europe's economy.

Belarus is also a key part of Russia's scheme. President Lukashenko will be gone and replaced this summer. This is the next step in completing the Union State, which also has long-term implications for the very vulnerable Suwałki Corridor.

War is test of wills and logistics. I assess Russian forces will collapse by end of summer and UAF will go over to the offense, exploiting that collapse and drive back RF forces to 23 Feb line or more by September.