USA
May
2021
-
May
2026
“I am sure that we are going to be in a kinetic conflict with China in five years,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Wednesday. “I hope I'm wrong, but I believe within the next five years there's going to be a kinetic conflict — missiles, submarines, aircraft; not so much land operations. … It’s just about inevitable.” /.../ “I just think the language coming out of Beijing about Taiwan, the fact that nobody did anything, truthfully, about what the Chinese have done in Hong Kong, to include the U.K. surprisingly, how little the response has been, and then the increasing aggression, aggressiveness, by the Chinese in the South China Sea — it seems to me it’s just about inevitable,” Hodges said. “I don’t want to say inevitable, but it’s very close to it.”
Sources: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/white-house-us-china-war-taiwan-broaden-quicklyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sS6dXSEe0Kk&t=963sFull video of remarks at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sS6dXSEe0Kk&t=963s
5Nov
2024
Jan
2023
-
Aug
2024
Source: https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/36735/at 52:06
Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was elected to be the nominee for Republicans, Joe Biden was ultimately not for Democrats.
Jan
2023
-
Aug
2024
Political prophesy is optional folly, but: There are not enough Republicans, in Iowa or the nation, enamored of the snarling contest between Trump and DeSantis — their competition to see who can despise the most American defects — to nominate either of them.
Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was elected to be the presidential nominee for Republicans, Ron DeSantis was not.
Jan
2024
He will lose one or the other. I think it's 80% likely Trump will be the nominee.
Jan-Dec
2023
Source: https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/36735/at 51:40
Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was indicted on several cases in 2023 but became a Republican candidate in 2024 Presidential elections
1Feb-31Mar
2021
1Jan-31Dec
2020
28Jul-31Aug
2020
30Dec
2019
-
17Jul
2020
2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries winner
Result: Joe Biden
Prediction: Joe Biden
Prediction: Bernie Sanders
Aug
2017
-
Jan
2019
He [Trump] is done, you can write it down in stone, he will not finish his first term. There is no way in the world he finishes four years. /.../ It could be as quickly as a week, could be as long as 18 months. /.../ I would be very surprised if he made it all the way to 18 months. From this day forward my best guess is within 6 months.
Jan
2017
-
Dec
2018
Rogers: /.../ Some stocks in America are turning into a bubble. The bubble’s gonna come. Then it’s going to collapse, and you should be very worried. /.../
Blodget: /.../ So when is this going to happen?
Rogers: Later this year or next.
Blodget: Later this year or next?
Rogers: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Write it down.
Blodget: And what will trigger it?
Rogers: Well, it’s interesting because these things always start where we’re not looking. In 2007, Iceland went broke. People said, ‘Iceland? Is that a country? They have a market?’ And then Ireland went broke. And then Bear Stearns went broke. And Lehman Brothers went broke. They spiral like that. Always happens where we’re not looking.
I don’t know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. /.../
Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.
Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.
Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff.
Blodget: /.../ So when is this going to happen?
Rogers: Later this year or next.
Blodget: Later this year or next?
Rogers: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Write it down.
Blodget: And what will trigger it?
Rogers: Well, it’s interesting because these things always start where we’re not looking. In 2007, Iceland went broke. People said, ‘Iceland? Is that a country? They have a market?’ And then Ireland went broke. And then Bear Stearns went broke. And Lehman Brothers went broke. They spiral like that. Always happens where we’re not looking.
I don’t know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. /.../
Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.
Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.
Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff.
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Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was elected to be the presidential nominee for Republicans, Ron DeSantis was not.