Spotlight
Spotlight was on predictions about the 2024 US presidential election.
5Nov
2024
2024 US presidential election winner
Result: Donald Trump
Prediction: Donald Trump
Prediction: Kamala Harris
Jan
2024
He will lose one or the other. I think it's 80% likely Trump will be the nominee.
Apr
2023
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Nov
2024
I believe we will remember this poll as Trump’s high-water mark. That should be a hint. What the poll fails to convey is that there is no potential of upward climb for the universally known former president. Donald Trump cannot win a national election.
/.../
At this point, I concede only that we cannot say with certainty who will be elected president in November 2024 — or even who the nominee will be for either party. That said, I am as certain as I am writing this that Donald Trump will never again be elected president of these United States.
Jan
2023
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Aug
2024
Political prophesy is optional folly, but: There are not enough Republicans, in Iowa or the nation, enamored of the snarling contest between Trump and DeSantis — their competition to see who can despise the most American defects — to nominate either of them.
Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was elected to be the presidential nominee for Republicans, Ron DeSantis was not.
Jan
2023
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Aug
2024
Source: https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/36735/at 52:06
Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was elected to be the nominee for Republicans, Joe Biden was ultimately not for Democrats.
Jan
2023
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Aug
2024
Source: https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/36735/at 49:50
Notes on the prediction's verdict (mixed):
Donald Trump was elected to be the presidential nominee for Republicans, Ron DeSantis was not.
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Notes on the prediction's verdict (wrong):
Donald Trump was elected to be the US President in 2024.